KJ’s  Basketball Journal                                                   October 27,  2000

It’s early and a lot could happen between now and the start of the 2000-01 season, but listed below are my pre-season analyses and predictions for the Bulldogs, Hawkeyes, Cyclones and Jayhawks.

DRAKE BULLDOGS

You’ll need a program this year at the Knapp Center, as Coach Kurt Kanaskie has brought in 10 newcomers, including nine transfers and one frosh.  It's considered one of the best recruiting classes in the Missouri Valley.  David Newman, a transfer guard from Northwestern, will have to sit out the year.

In the backcourt:  Lamont Evans, the athletic 6’4 senior will lead the team.  An excellent ballhandler, he will need to step up point production if the Bulldogs are going to move up in the league.  Aaron Thomas, a 6’4 senior and 6’5 soph Andrew Pleick return.  I’ll bet though, that incoming 6’5 freshman Luke McDonald lands a starting role by midseason, either at shooting guard or swing forward.  He was all-state in Texas and is highly rated.  The Bulldogs have four other untested guards in the wings: Andy Zediker, a 6’3 junior transfer from Iowa, 6’2 junior Billy Cundiff (who kicked a 62 yd field goal for the Bulldog football team Sept. 30 against San Diego), and two transfers from St. Catherine Juco, 6’4 Aaron Knight and 6’2 Dontaie Smith, who come with good credentials.

In the post:  Mike O’Neill, a 6’10 transfer from New Mexico Military Institute (yes, that’s where former Bulldog All-American Lewis “Black Magic” Lloyd came from) will be given the opportunity to plug the post.  If he doesn’t work out, Drake will have to move power forward Greg Danielson over. 

On the corners:  Assuming O’Neill comes through, 6’9 sophomore hunk Greg Danielson will provide the power and Joey Gaw, a 6’9 senior swingman will complement.  Senior Justin Ohl should put in some quality backup minutes.  Three transfers will compete for time, including 6’7 Alberto Jempierre (from Daytona Beach JC), 6’7 soph Andry Sola (from George Washington), and 6’6 T. J. Welton (from Kirkwood Juco).

                                PROBABLE LINEUP

My Prediction:  This is a rebuilding year for Drake, which ended last year with an overall record of 11-18 (last in the MVC at 4-14).   However, if O’Neill can come through,  look for the Bulldogs to go as high as 5^th in the Valley.  More likely though, they’ll finish 7th or 8th.  No postseason this year.

IOWA HAWKEYES

Bad news, good news.  Two of last year’s starters who were counted on to provide scoring punch won’t be around this year, as 6’6 Rob Griffin was dismissed from the team and 6’6 Kyle Galloway had a career-ending injury.  However, Steve Alford brought in one of the top recruiting classes in the nation.

Guards:  With 5’11 senior Dean Oliver and 6’6 junior transfer Luke Recker, the Hawks have one of the best backcourts in the country.  Oliver should be ably backed up by 6’3 junior Jason Smith, while Recker might be pushed by two newcomers: 6’4 Ryan Hogan, a transfer from Kentucky, and 5’11 Brody Boyd, a gunner who was “Mr. Basketball” in Indiana last year.

At center:  Jared Reiner, a highly rated 6’11 freshman from Tripp, SD, will be given every opportunity to gain a starters role in the paint.  He’ll be backed up by 6’9 junior John Carl Williams, who saw virtually no playing time last year, and another freshman, 6’9 Sean Sonderleiter, from Des Moines.  If none of these work out, journeyman Joe Fermino, a 6’7 forward could see more playing time in the post.

In the wings:  The junior tandem of 6’7 Duez Henderson and 6’6 Rod Thompson will be pushed by 6’6 juco transfer Reggie Evans, and Glenn Worley, a 6’8 freshman from Iowa City West.

                                 PROBABLE LINEUP

                        * HS stats    **JC stats    ***X-fer stats

Things to look for:  Unless Reiner comes on strong, the Hawks will be a perimeter team.  Oliver will slash and then dish out to the open man for a three.  Although thin in the paint, Alford might take a chance and redshirt Sonderleiter, who needs to beef up.

My Prediction:  Iowa could be as high as third in the Big Ten, but more likely 4th or 5th. (They may have contended for the title had Griffin and Galloway stayed around).  They should win one or two in the NCAAs.  Oliver should be first team all-Big 10.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES

Had Marcus Fizer stayed for his senior year and Juco All-American Ernest Brown landed at ISU, I would be picking the Cyclones to win it all this year, particularly since All-American point guard Jamaal Tinsley decided to stay for his senior year.  Many analysts ranked Coach Eustachy’s recruiting class pretty high.

In the backcourt:   ISU should have one of the better guard combos in the nation this year, with 6’1 senior shooter Kantrail Horton joining Tinsley.  They’ll be backed up by 6’3 soph Brandon Hawkins, who showed promise last year.  Freshman Jake Sullivan, from Oakdale, MN, could provide some scoring punch.

In the paint:  The Clones have only two players over 6’9  - incoming freshman Andrew Skogland, a 7’1 skinny center from Minnetonka, MN, and senior 6’10 Paul Shirley, who although more naturally suited at forward, will likely start in the post.

At the corners:  Martin Rancik, a 6’8 senior should rebound from an injury-plagued junior season, and will be joined by senior Richard Evans, a 6’5 F/G.  Big things are expected of transfer Tyray Pearson, a 6’7 junior from Kankakee CC, who should get plenty of playing time.

                   PROBABLE LINEUP

                  *JC stats

Unknowns: The Cyclones have a number of sophomores who didn’t get playing time last year, but could emerge this year, including 6’1 G Kyle Brumm, 6’2 G Brad Davis, 6’2 G Justin Fries, 6’3 G Brandon Nicol, and 6’4 F Clint Varley.  They are joined by sophomore transfers Omar Bynum, a 6’7 forward from Indian Hills CC and 6’5 G/F Marcus Jefferson who transferred from Providence, and incoming freshman Shane Power, a promising 6’5 forward.

Things to look for:  Unless Skogland works his way into a starters role, the Clones will rely on a three-forward offense (Hey, it worked real good last year).  Rebounding should be a problem, but they will have good speed and quickness.  Aside from his core of five seniors, there are a lot of untested players, so look for Eustachy to try a lot of different combinations early in the season.

My Prediction:   This will be a senior dominated team that should finish in the upper echelon of the Big 12 (3^rd or 4^th) and their experience could carry them to the Final 16.  Tinsley will be 1st or 2nd team All-American.

KANSAS JAYHAWKS

In spite of an apparently weak recruiting effort, Kansas should rebound from its 24-10 record of last year and return to dominance of the Big 12.  But that is based on several “ifs” from its senior class.  If 7’1 center Eric Chenowith rebounds from his disappointing junior season, if 6’10 shooting guard Luke Axtell shows up healthy, and if 6’5 F/G Kenny Gregory can become more consistent, Kansas has the talent to top the Big 12 and get to the Final Four.  Lindy's preseason mag says "Everything is in place for this to be KU's finest season in a decade".

At center: Although losing his starting position in February last season, Chenowith should dominate the conference in 2001 and become a lottery pick…. if he comes back mentally and physically tougher.  He’s KU’s only true center, so the Jayhawks will rely on him for a lot of minutes.  If Jeff Carey, a 6’10 junior, blossoms, it will be a big plus for Kansas.  In their small lineup, 6’9 sophomore Drew Gooden will get some time at center.

On the corners:  Kansas is loaded at forward, as starters  Gooden, 6’9 Sophomore Nick Collison, and Gregory return.  Axtell will get some play at forward, and newcomer Bryant Nash, a relatively unknown 6’6 recruit from Carrollton, TX may surprise. Coach Williams says he may be KU's fastest player.

In the backcourt: I expect KU to platoon Axtell and Gregory at shooting guard.  6’3 Kirk Hinrich looked awfully good toward the end of last season and should improve during his sophomore year as the Jayhawks point guard.  They’ll be backed up by 6’1 junior Jeff Boshee, who’ll  get playing time at both positions.  It’ll be hard to keep him out of the starting lineup if he’s able to improve his shooting.

                                PROBABLE LINUP

At the end of the bench: Except at mop-up times, don’t expect to see 6’4 junior guard John Crider, or newcomers Mario Kinsey, a 6’2 guard who was recruited as a quarterback for the football team, and 6’5 forward Chris Zerbe, a transfer from Hutchison JC.

Things to look for: While Roy Williams has been prone to give significant minutes to 9 or 10 players in recent years, this year he’ll likely have an 8 man rotation by the time the conference season starts.  That alone should make the Jayhawks tougher and more consistent than last year.

My Prediction:  The Hawks should win the Big Twelve, slightly ahead of Missouri and Oklahoma. Last year's top three,  Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State all lost key players and will drop.  If all goes well, look for the Jayhawks to show up in the Final Four.